Why Bookmakers Might Want the Favorite to Win

In the world of sports betting, it's often assumed that bookmakers prefer underdogs to win, as surprise outcomes may lead to fewer payouts and higher profits for the house. However, this assumption doesn’t always hold true. In many situations, bookmakers may actually benefit more when the favorite wins. This might seem counterintuitive at first, but understanding the mechanics of odds-setting, betting behavior, and market balance helps explain why this can happen.

This article explores the reasons why bookmakers may sometimes want the favorite to win, and what this means for bettors, the industry, and how odds are shaped in real time.

1. Understanding How Bookmakers Operate

Before diving into the motivations of bookmakers, it’s essential to understand their business model.

Bookmakers Aren’t Betting Themselves

Contrary to popular belief, bookmakers aren’t gamblers. Their primary goal is not to “guess” the outcome of events, but to manage risk and balance the books.

They do this by:

• Setting odds to attract balanced betting on both sides of a match.

• Adjusting odds as bets come in to maintain profit margins.

• Collecting the “vig” or margin, a small cut built into the odds regardless of outcome.

If bets are evenly spread, the bookmaker profits no matter who wins. But if the betting is lopsided, the result can drastically affect profitability.

2. Public Bias Toward the Favorite

One major factor in why bookmakers might want the favorite to win lies in public betting behavior.

Casual Bettors Prefer Favorites

• Recreational bettors often back the favorite because they are perceived as the most likely to win.

• These bets may be made emotionally, based on team popularity or recent form, rather than actual value.

• Favorites also receive media attention, reinforcing their appeal to the general public.

The Impact on the Bookmaker

If most of the betting volume is placed on the underdog, and the underdog pulls off an upset, the bookmaker is forced to pay out large amounts on relatively high odds.

In contrast, if bets are more balanced, and the favorite wins at low odds, bookmakers pay out less per unit wagered, which can actually be more favorable for their balance sheets.

3. Sharps vs. Squares: The Bettor Profile

Another important consideration is the difference between sharp (professional) bettors and square (casual) bettors.

Sharp Bettors Look for Value

Sharp bettors are more likely to place large wagers on underdogs when the odds are mispriced. These bettors:

• Use data and statistical models

• Avoid emotionally-driven bets

• Seek out inefficiencies in the market

Casual Bettors Back the Favorite

Casual, low-stakes bettors tend to bet on what they know or feel confident about: the favorite.

Why Bookmakers May Prefer the Favorite Wins

If the underdog wins and sharps were on it, the bookmaker suffers larger losses.

If the favorite wins, the bookmaker may only need to pay out small winnings to a wide audience, mostly made up of casual players who bet small stakes. The result? A better profit margin.

4. Managing Liability and Risk Exposure

Bookmakers aim to reduce liability, which is the risk of having to pay out significantly more than they take in.

Example Scenario:

Let’s say a bookmaker receives:

• $500,000 in bets on the favorite

• $300,000 in bets on the underdog

If the underdog wins at 300 (odds of 4.00), the payout could be $1.2 million, resulting in a net loss.

If the favorite wins at -150 (odds of 1.67), the payout is $835,000, for a small profit or breakeven.

Thus, despite the heavier betting volume on the favorite, the payout liability on the underdog is more dangerous.

In such situations, the bookmaker would rather see the favorite win to protect their financial position.

5. Parlay Bets and Accumulator Risks

Favorites are also frequently included in parlays or accumulator bets, where bettors string together multiple results for higher payouts.

The Paradox:

• If favorites start losing, many parlays are broken early, saving the bookmaker from massive payouts.

• However, if only one or two key favorites are beaten, while the rest win, some risky parlays still cash in with huge multipliers.

Safer Outcome: All Favorites Win

When most favorites win, bookmakers are generally paying out smaller, predictable sums to a large number of players. While not ideal, this is often less volatile than a single underdog upsetting the odds and busting the book.

6. Market Manipulation and Line Movement

Bookmakers also use line movement to protect themselves and steer betting behavior.

Moving the Line:

If too much money comes in on the underdog, bookmakers may shift the odds, making the favorite more attractive to balance the action.

When successful, this leads to:

• Even distribution of bets

• Predictable profits regardless of outcome

But if the line movement fails to attract enough bets on the favorite, and the underdog wins, the losses can be considerable.

Thus, in high-liability situations, the bookmaker may root for the favorite to win—not for emotional reasons, but for business survival.

7. Brand Reputation and Customer Satisfaction

An often-overlooked reason bookmakers might want the favorite to win is customer experience.

When Favorites Win:

• More customers win, even if modestly.

• This leads to positive user experience, encouraging repeat business.

• It helps maintain trust in the platform, especially for new or casual bettors.

When Underdogs Win:

• Many users lose their bets.

• It may lead to dissatisfaction, suspicion, or accusations of rigging—particularly in fringe sports or niche leagues.

So while occasional upsets are part of the excitement, frequent or unpredictable outcomes can alienate customers, making it better for business when favorites win consistently.

8. Bookmakers Are Not Always the Enemy

It’s easy to assume that bookmakers are constantly “out to get” bettors. But the truth is more nuanced.

Their goal is to maintain healthy margins while providing a fair and enjoyable service.

In many cases, bookmakers do not mind paying out winnings, especially when the odds are low, and the amounts manageable. Ensuring that a favorite wins—when it aligns with market exposure and risk control—is simply good business practice, not manipulation.

9. Real-World Examples

To further clarify, consider two actual case studies:

Case Study 1: The 2015 Leicester City Miracle

Leicester City won the English Premier League at 5000-to-1 odds.

• Bookmakers had offered long odds due to the team's perceived weakness.

• Very few bets were placed, but the publicity generated huge liability once the team kept winning.

• In this case, bookmakers clearly did not want the underdog to win.

Case Study 2: World Cup 2022 - France vs. Australia

In group-stage matches with heavy favorites like France vs. Australia, most bettors backed France at short odds.

• Even with many bets placed, the low odds meant small payouts.

• France winning allowed bookmakers to collect the vig and maintain customer satisfaction.

• An Australian upset, with high odds, would’ve meant larger losses.

These examples highlight how bookmaker desires change depending on betting behavior and liability.

10. Conclusion: Betting Is About Balance, Not Just Outcomes

So, why do bookmakers sometimes want the favorite to win? It all boils down to risk management, profit protection, and customer retention.

Key Takeaways:

• Bookmakers aim to balance bets, not predict outcomes.

• Heavy underdog action can create dangerous liability.

• Payouts on favorites are often smaller and safer.

• Public betting behavior plays a huge role.

• The “best” outcome for a bookmaker depends on where the money is—not who is supposed to win.

Understanding these dynamics can make you a more informed and strategic bettor. Next time you place a bet, ask yourself: not just who’s going to win—but who benefits most if they do?